Abstracts – Browse Results

Search or browse again.

Click on the titles below to expand the information about each abstract.
Viewing 13 results ...

Al-Khalil, M I and Al-Ghafly, M A (1999) Important causes of delay in public utility projects in Saudi Arabia. Construction Management and Economics, 17(05), 647-55.

Bon, R, Birgonul, T and Ozdogan, I (1999) An input-output analysis of the Turkish construction sector, 1973-1990: a note. Construction Management and Economics, 17(05), 543-51.

Chen, J J and Chambers, D (1999) Sustainability and the impact of Chinese policy initiatives upon construction. Construction Management and Economics, 17(05), 679-87.

Gunner, J and Skitmore, M R (1999) Comparative analysis of pre-bid forecasting of building prices based on Singapore data. Construction Management and Economics, 17(05), 635-46.

Lam, K C and Runeson, G (1999) Modelling financial decisions in construction firms. Construction Management and Economics, 17(05), 589-602.

Lo, W, Krizek, R J and Hadavi, A (1999) Effects of high pre-qualification requirements. Construction Management and Economics, 17(05), 603-12.

Loosemore, M (1999) International construction management research: cultural sensitivity in methodological design. Construction Management and Economics, 17(05), 553-61.

Low, S P and Hui, M S (1999) The application of JIT philosophy to construction: a case study in site layout. Construction Management and Economics, 17(05), 657-68.

Miller, J B and Evje, R H (1999) The practical application of delivery methods to project portfolios. Construction Management and Economics, 17(05), 669-77.

Proverbs, D G, Holt, G D and Olomolaiye, P O (1999) Construction resource/method factors influencing productivity for high rise concrete construction. Construction Management and Economics, 17(05), 577-87.

Ranasinghe, M (1999) Private sector participation in infrastructure projects: a methodology to analyse viability of BOT. Construction Management and Economics, 17(05), 613-23.

Tse, R Y C, Ho, C W and Ganesan, S (1999) Matching housing supply and demand: an empirical study of Hong Kong' s market. Construction Management and Economics, 17(05), 625-33.

Zhai, H and Russell, J S (1999) Stochastic modelling and prediction of contractor default risk. Construction Management and Economics, 17(05), 563-76.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: stochastic modelling; model
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/014461999371187
  • Abstract:

    The purpose of this paper is to describe a systematic framework of stochastic modelling and prediction of financial default risk of construction contractors. Net-worth-to-asset ratio is identified as an index for default process modelling. The default condition is defined as when the ratio becomes negative the first time. A mean-reverting dynamic model for the contractor default process is found by statistical analysis and is justified by using the theory of optimal capital structure. The stochastic modelling of default uses the time to default as the fundamental random variable. A discrete time trinomial Markov chain model is developed to assess default risk in terms of a cumulative default probability function, a default probability function, and the mean and variance of time to default. Practical examples are given to illustrate the stochastic methods. A default discriminant study on a group of contractors and publicly traded companies validates the methods, and indicates a high predictability of events of default and declines of credit rating.